What do you value in a Hall of Fame candidate? Ideally it’s a high peak paired with longevity. But what if he doesn’t have the staying-power most inductees have? In that case, how high does the peak need to be?
Consider the case of Johan Santana. He doesn’t have the longevity of most Cooperstown men. However, his peak reached heights rarely seen in baseball history.
For a five-year period, Santana was quite simply the best pitcher on the planet. From 2004-2008 Santana led the entire big leagues in all three categories of the pitching Triple Crown (minimum 750 innings).
In addition to the top marks in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, Santana topped all MLB pitchers in WAR, batting average against, and WHIP. Cy Young voters recognized his greatness. In the five-year run he earned the honor twice, finished third twice and fifth once.
Santana’s ERA+ in those five years was 157. He had one 8-WAR campaign, two 7-WAR seasons, and 5-WAR year, for a total of 35.1 WAR.
That’s a high peak. It’s so high that only 18 other hurlers have had five straight years with a WAR total of 35 and an ERA+ of 150.
In 2006 he became the 10th pitcher since the inception of the American League in 1901 to lead the entire major leagues in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Eight of the first nine are in Cooperstown – Cy Young, Rube Waddell, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Lefty Gomez, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, and Pedro Martinez. The ninth is Roger Clemens. That’s elite company.
Santana had four other solid years as well. Each pair of seasons directly before and directly after his five-year dominance was outstanding. In 2002 and 2003 his ERA+ was 150 and 148, respectively. In 2009 it was 130; in 2010 it was 131.
For the nine-year period from 2002-2010 his ERA+ was 150. That means he was 50% better than a league-average pitcher for nearly a decade. According to BaseballReference.com, his WAR during that time is 50.1.
Santana, who broke in with the Twins in 2000 enjoyed 8 seasons in Minnesota. In February, 2008 he was was traded to the New York Mets. Two days later Santana signed a six-year, $137M contract to stay in the Big Apple.
The southpaw’s first year in New York featured his fourth 7-WAR season in five years. He led the NL in innings pitched, and ERA, and finished third for the Cy Young.
In 2009 he made the All Star team but battled arm and elbow problems until he was shut down in August.
Santana was ready for the start of 2010 and pitched well for much of the year. On September 2nd at Atlanta he threw just 65 pitches before being lifted. Before he his next scheduled start, bad news emerged: Santana needed surgery on his pitching shoulder.
The recovery took longer than expected and the ace missed the entire 2011 season. Ready to go in 2012, he took his turn in the rotation in the early months of the year.
On June 1st against the highest-scoring team in the league, Santana quieted the St. Louis bats. Through the eighth inning he hadn’t allowed a hit. His pitch count soared toward a new career high.
Mets manager Terry Collins faced a tough decision. Should he pull Santana to protect his surgically-repaired shoulder? Or should he allow the ace a chance to complete the no-hitter?
An old-school baseball man, Collins sent Santana back to the hill. After retiring the first to St. Louis batters, Santana faced the previous year’s World Series MVP in David Freese. The Cardinals third baseman worked the count full. On his 134th pitch of the evening, Santana got Freese swinging to secure the first no-hitter in Mets franchise history.
After the gem, Johan Santana was never the same. In his next start he was lit up for 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. After the no-hitter he made 10 appearances spanning 49 innings. Opponents knocked him around to the tune of a .327 average and a .587 slugging percentage.
On August 17th against the Nationals, Santana yielded 6 runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. The Mets shut him down for the rest of the year.
Johan Santana never returned to a big league mound. Once the greatest pitcher on earth, he was done at age 33.
Five years later in 2018, Santana appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot. Voters determined his 139 wins and 1,988 strikeouts weren’t Cooperstown material. After being named on just 2.4% of the ballot, he fell off the writers’ ballot forever.
Santana’s supporters feel his Everest-like peak more than makes up for the brevity of his career. Others point to his lack of counting numbers as proof he’s not Cooperstown-worthy.
Now his fate rests in the hands of the Veterans Committee.
In the collection is this 2004 Fleer baseball card from the 100-card Sweet Sigs collection. Santana’s signature is adorned on the front.